Shipping is one of the world’s most international activities. Over 90 per cent of all global products are currently transported by sea. In addition, shipping volumes are increasing. Freight volume is expected to double between now and 2030 and reach around 20 billion tonnes*.
Popular trade routes
The Baltic Region has approximately 100 million consumers and is an integral part of international sea transport, representing around 15 per cent of global shipping traffic. This makes the Baltic one of the world’s busiest inland seas.
The Baltic Region is an important market for CMP. Current forecasts point to a 30 per cent increase in freight volumes, corresponding to 229 million tonnes**, between now and 2030. It is mainly the container and RoRo traffic that is expected to grow over the next 15 years. At the same time, liquid bulk volumes are expected to decrease. Liquid bulk has traditionally been one of the major types of freight in the Baltic traffic.
Growth is judged to be strongest in countries like Poland, Russia, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. In CMP’s two homelands of Sweden and Denmark, freight volumes are expected to increase by around 30 and 25 per cent respectively between now and 2030. Added to this is the fact that these two countries are considered to be among the most competitive in Europe. In the ranking drawn up by the World Economic Forum – Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014 – both Sweden and Denmark are on the list of the ten most competitive states in the European Union.
Trends in the market
Focus on the
Ports are increasingly seen as an integral part of a greater logistics chain, rather than a centre specifically for freight shipping. This means that there will be greater focus on the surrounding infrastructure as well as road and rail connections, which will be expected to contribute to the competitiveness of a port. At the same time there will be increasing demand for the creation of more efficient transport corridors, from which bottlenecks and other weak links in the logistics chain will gradually be redesigned or eliminated in some other way. The EU has designated the ports of both Copenhagen and Malmö as so-called Core Ports. This means that these ports will play an especially important part in the successive expansion of Europe’s main transport nodes, TEN-T.
Cross-segmentation and new collaborations.
Port operators are becoming increasingly international and are also broadening the base of their activities. The result is cross-segmentation, where some players are now running shipping, forwarding, railway and port activities. Gradual consolidation is also occurring, where port operators are expanding geographically through the acquisition of ports located far from their traditional home markets. New forms of collaboration are also being developed. One example of this is CMP’s collaboration with Region Gotland, where the aim is to jointly develop Visby as a cruise destination. CMP’s long experience of cruises is an important prerequisite for the development of cruise tourism that is beginning on Gotland.
Stricter environmental rules, new routes.
The impact of shipping traffic on the environment is in focus, especially with regard to sulphur and nitrogen emissions. New environmental regulations for shipping in the Baltic and the North Sea, which will reduce the sulphur content of fuel by 90 per cent, will come into force in 2015. Shipping will be directly affected by these rules, which will increase fuel costs. These costs may cause logistics companies to choose new means of transport and move more freight to lorry or rail transport. For CMP a change of means of transport may create new opportunities, for example if goods that were previously transported by sea from continental Europe to the northern parts of the Baltic are instead transferred between rail and ship in Malmö.
Increasing rail traffic.
Rail freight traffic is increasing. This also means that volumes in so-called combi traffic are growing. This traffic is an intermodal logistics solution, which enables goods to be transferred between ships, lorries and trains. In a number of ports in the Baltic Region, investments are now being made in module-based traffic and in intermodal solutions, where trains are becoming an increasingly important part of the logistics chain. This type of transport is being prioritised within the EU, partly because it has less impact on the environment and helps to ensure that better use is made of the various types of transport.
Growth in cruising.
The global cruise industry is showing high growth and it has been calculated that during 2013 it carried 21.3 million passengers. For a long time passenger numbers have been increasing by some 7 per cent per year***. At the same time there is still great potential, bearing in mind that cruise tourism only represents around five per cent of the global travel and tourism industry. In order to further develop the range of offers, new ideas are constantly being suggested – e.g. themed cruises, cruises aimed at families with children and all-inclusive concepts. Europe is currently responsible for about 10 per cent of global cruise tourism and is one of the fastest-growing markets, alongside Asia and Latin America.
In Copenhagen the number of cruise passengers has doubled since 2005. In 2012 the total turnover from cruise tourism in the Danish capital was calculated at around 1.4 billion Danish kroner. At the same time, this tourism is judged to have contributed some 4,000 seasonal jobs during the 6 – 7-month-long cruise season.
In 2014-2016 it was calculated that the shipping companies took 23 new cruise ships into service in the markets in various parts of the world. The new ships get bigger and bigger, which increases the demand for capacity and infrastructure in the ports visited by these ships. Next year cruise traffic in the North sea and the Baltic will probably be affected by the new, stricter rules on emissions, which will be introduced from and including 2015. As a consequence, fuel costs will rise, which may mean that the shipping companies choose to change their routes and prioritise other cruise markets. Similar emissions regulations will not be introduced in the Mediterranean until 2020.
* “Global Marine Trends 2030” – Qientiq/Lloyd’s Register/University of Strathclyde Glasgow.
** “Baltic Transport Outlook 2030”. Funded by EU.
*** CLIA - Cruise Lines International Association